Trackdata is mildly surprised by the number of journalists who have put Reward For Effort on their list of horses to follow from last Saturday. In a wonderful resuming performance, Reward For Effort staved off all challengers to win the Sir John Monash Stakes, having his first run 15 months. However, a closer analysis of the event shows that the rising 4YO had a picnic in the lead, with a number of "average" performers such as Keano and Stanzout making up much ground in the home straight despite the leisurely pace of the event. 2YO Breitling produced a much faster last 600m earlier in the day, and better time figures overall. As Trackdata pointed our in our article last week, runners leading or close to the lead (in the first three positions) have dominated the Sir John Monash, winning 9 of the last 10 events on dry tracks, often pinching a break on the corner, over the 1100m scamper. This time twelve months ago, I Am Invincible also stole the Sir John Monash Stakes from the lead, falling in to win by a head, yet within minutes connections were unbelievably confirming dreams of racing in the USA later that year, and even Royal Ascot the following year! I Am Invinvible failed to even place at his next two starts (starting a hot favourite in the Bletchingly), before being retired. Trackdata has searched our database for other class runners to resume with a winning performance after such a long break, and we found two examples: 1) Golden Slipper winner Guineas resumed after a 17 month break as 5YO, to win the STC Concorde Stakes at the unwanted price of 40/1. However, at his next two starts that preparation, he finished 9th on both occasions. 2) Top class sprinter miler Rigoletto resumed after a 18 month break to win the AJC Shorts as a heavily supported 7/4 favourite in 1989. Trained by the master, Bart Cummings, the entire was unplaced at his next start in a welter as a raging hot favourite at 4/9. He was then unplaced in the Group One Gadsden Stakes at Flemington, starting favourite again, before being retired. Given the very poor record of Sir John Monash Stakes winners in the Bletchingly Stakes in recent years, Trackdata suggests that punters let Reward For Effort run against them at his next start. After such a long break, he is more likely to go backwards than forwards in his performance next time out. Kevin Skene, TRACKDATA, 19/07/2010 |
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