The MRC Sir John Monash Stakes at Caulfield is, in my humble opinion, the unofficial opening feature race of the new racing year. Although the official opening date of the Racing Year is the 1st August, the Monash Stakes was altered to WFA conditions in 1994, and has become the pipe opener for the Spring for the Melbourne WFA stars ever since. Before 1994, the STC Missile Stakes in Sydney was the previous first "feature" event of the new racing year (although often run at the end of the old year, depending on the dates), but still remains as the Sydney opening attraction annually. This year's Monash lacks some established WFA speedsters such as Newmarket winners Rubitano in 2002, and Isca in 1999, although former top class 2YO Reward For Effort adds much interest. Trackdata has provided a Race Analysis chart this week for the Sir John Monash Stakes, which provides race history data and statistical formlines not found elsewhere on the internet, and are a must for punters. This week's chart in particular has identified the Sir John Monash Stakes as a graveyard event for bookmakers, with the favourite or second favourite winning 12 of the last 13 events, on both wet and dry tracks. While most races that have many runners resuming from a spell usually allows for upsets, the Monash has bucked this trend, and punters should be happy to rally to one of the two favourites on raceday. Another statistic that is clearly revealed is that runners leading or close to the lead (in the first three positions) have dominated winning 8 of 9 events on dry tracks. Arinos looks certain to be either the leader or co-leader from his perfect draw, and only resuming from a fourth month break, looks likely to return a rating that will defeat the remainder of the field bar Reward For Effort. The former top 2YO will defeat this field, including Arinos, if Moody can get him to produce something near his best on raceday, after more than a year off from racing. Reward For Effort and Arinos have a clear class, pace/position and statistical edge over the remainder of the field, should the track be rated dead or better on Saturday. The market movements between now and racetime will determine which is the right runner way for punters to choose to invest on. Kevin Skene, TRACKDATA, 15/07/2010 |
FORM AND STATS POINT TO ONLY TWO CHANCES IN MONASH
